One of the things that often come up in discussing models is the average capabilities to do damage. In these conversations, people often discuss average rolls (3.5 per dice obviously). So MAT 5 models hit a DEF 12 with an average roll, etc. While this is a useful, and quick, measurement, it is often misleading. The problem is further compounded by effects that don’t just add or remove dice, but target certain dice. Signs & Portents, Roulette, and Star Crossed all carry this kind of effect, and it can be difficult to calculate the effect the will have on the game.
In an attempt to provide something that can shed some more light on this, I have put together a python script that simulates these attack situations and is capable of adjusting for these types of effects. The repository with the script can be found here. It is pretty simple to use if you have python installed. You just provide a number of simulations to run, a base MAT or RAT, a target DEF, and a number of dice to roll. The program will execute as many simulations as you want, and calculate your success percentage. If you want to involve something like Signs & Portents, you can use the –low and –high flags to tell the app how many low and/or high dice to discard.
python dice_rolls.py 25000 5 13 2
You would suceed 42.2% percent of the time.
python dice_rolls.py 25000 5 13 3 –low 1
You would suceed 68.2% percent of the time.
In this example, you can see that a MAT 5 model will hit a DEF 13 model 42.2% of the time. If that same model is under the effects of Signs & Portents, it will suceed 68.2% of a time. A big jump!
While there is currently just the one file, I am going to keep adding to this. Having a simulation that can run numbers on the ability to destroy a model with certain stats is my next goal.
Please try it out and let me know what you think!